The fact that Ulaanbaatar’s air pollution levels are comparable to those in Los Angeles, a city ravaged by devastating wildfires, speaks volumes about the hazardous conditions in which the residents of Mongolia’s capital are forced to breathe and live. This crisis can be partly attributed to years of poor infrastructure planning and chronic energy shortages. Evidence of this is that 55% of the capital's households-215,000 families-reside in ger districts, unable to connect to the central heating system, and are enduring the winters of the world’s coldest capital by burning coal and compressed coal fuel despite the severe pollution it causes. Consequently, the MICC study also determined that 80% of the current air pollution originates, whether voluntarily or not, from these ger district households.

Discussing air quality under these circumstances is heartbreaking, yet some figures must be highlighted. In recent years, the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter in Ulaanbaatar has remained 6 to 9 times higher than the levels recommended by the World Health Organization and Mongolia's Air Quality Standards. Ger district households release 23,000 tonnes of pollutants into the air each year, including 11,000 tonnes of particulate matter and 9,500 tonnes of sulfur dioxide, making it nearly impossible to maintain good health. Air quality levels exceeding 500 are classified as “heavily polluted and hazardous to health,” yet Ulaanbaatar's Air Quality Index often surpasses 700 during winter. Another worsening factor is ash waste. Ash from ger district households accounts for about 50% of the city’s total waste, with approximately 104,000 tonnes being continuously dumped at landfills near Ulaanbaatar annually. This contributes to air pollution even in warmer months, as dust particles rise into the air. It would be unfair to directly blame the residents of ger districts for this situation. However, it is crucial to calculate the economic impact of air pollution and urgently identify effective solutions.

PROJECTED TO COST MNT 1.1 TRILLION ANNUALLY

The MICC study highlights significant economic calculations, emphasizing the direct and indirect costs of air pollution. According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), households in ger districts spend 17.5% of their annual income on coal for heating. MICC's calculations estimate that the annual cost of coal consumption in Ulaanbaatar's ger districts amounts to MNT 178 billion. Adding the cost of coal used by power plants, which burn 5.2 million tonnes annually for electricity and heat generation, the city's total coal expenses reach approximately MNT 337 billion per year. The government also allocates funds annually to combat air pollution. From 2008 to 2016, MNT 16.4 billion was spent each year. During the same period, MNT 93.5 billion was spent through the Clean Air Fund on inefficient projects such as subsidies for stoves and processed fuel, home insulation, and ash waste collection vehicles, as confirmed by audit reports. Additionally, international grants and concessional loans amounted to MNT 87 billion. Since 2017, the government has initiated the National Program for Reducing Air and Environmental Pollution in two phases, running until 2025. According to the UNDP's Air Pollution Budget Expenditure Analysis Report, a total of USD 4.1 billion (MNT 9.8 trillion) will be spent throughout the program, averaging an annual budget expenditure of approximately MNT 1.1 trillion.

A SINGLE HOUSEHOLD SPENDS 293 PERSON-HOURS ON BURNING F IREWOOD ANNUALLY

Beyond the monetary figures mentioned earlier, fully measuring the economic losses caused by air pollution remains challenging. However, this study has attempted to include the most evident calculations as comprehensively as possible. For instance, deaths related to air pollution increased from 2,400 in 2013 to 4,000 in 2018, resulting in an economic loss of MNT 6.83 trillion. In 2023 alone, the National Institute of Public Health reported that 61 people died from carbon monoxide poisoning. There are also hidden costs associated with coal consumption. On average, a household member spends 1.5 hours per day heating their home with coal. MICC calculated that a household dedicates approximately 293 person-hours per year for this task. When adjusted to Ulaanbaatar’s average income, the resulting opportunity cost amounts to MNT 505 billion annually. This translates to an estimated annual expense of MNT 2.3 million per household due to coal use. Moreover, air pollution has driven up housing prices depending on location, while concerns over toxic exposure have led to increased use of private vehicles, worsening traffic congestion. Additionally, higher-income residents often seek to move away from the city, amplifying the indirect impacts. Healthcare costs have also risen significantly, as widely acknowledged. UNICEF estimated that air pollution-related healthcare expenses reached MNT 18.4 billion in 2016 and have continued to grow by at least 8% annually. By 2018, these costs were estimated to have approached MNT 22 billion.

ENERGY AS A FUNDAMENTAL SOLUTION

When all these factors are combined, air pollution costs Mongolia approximately MNT 10.8 trillion annually. In other words, the economic burden on the state budget, loans, grants, and households each year is equivalent to the cost of building a new Fifth Thermal Power Plant. If Mongolia could establish a major new energy source, infrastructure availability would improve significantly. This would create opportunities for ger district residents to access electricity and heating without producing emissions while also expanding housing supply. The primary source meeting these needs today is coal, a major pollutant. Reducing air pollution would eliminate the associated indirect costs, improve living conditions, and positively impact public mental health. A single citizen’s experience already illustrates this clearly. N. Gantuya, a resident of Songino Khairkhan District's 31st khoroo, switched to solar power for electricity and heating this winter, as reported by *Energy Insight*. Her home is now free from stoves, chimneys, coal, and ash. She shared how this transformation brought her immense psychological relief, saying, “My living environment has become more comfortable and peaceful, which is an unparalleled positive change." Previously, this household spent approximately MNT 250,000 per month on electricity and fuel. After transitioning to solar power, their expenses decreased by a significant 2.5 times. Beyond the financial savings, they also saved time previously spent on carrying coal, lighting fires, and disposing of ash, allowing them to invest their efforts elsewhere. Thus, a fundamental solution to air pollution lies in improving energy supply.

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